ASPI

Iran is rerouting trade toward the Caspian Sea after war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that has long carried the bulk of its commerce. The move highlights how the conflict is reshaping Iranian supply lines, pushing trade toward northern corridors and overland connections with Central Asia as Gulf access becomes increasingly unreliable.

Analysts at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute argue that a Chinese seizure of Taiwan would be so destabilising for Japan that it could drive Tokyo to abandon its non-nuclear posture and develop nuclear weapons. The piece, published on ASPI's Strategist commentary site, frames the scenario as 'revolting for the CCP', suggesting Beijing's ambitions could trigger the very regional nuclear proliferation it seeks to avoid.

Attention is turning to whether Iran can reroute trade through the Caspian Sea now that conflict has impaired shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries much of Iran's and the region's commerce. Analysts are examining the logistics of shifting cargo north, and the question highlights how the war is reshaping trade routes and raising concerns over supply disruption.

Iran is exploring moving its oil and trade flows north to Caspian Sea routes as the war and US pressure impair shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for most of its crude exports. Analysts question whether Caspian corridors, reliant on limited ports and neighbouring states' cooperation, can realistically replace the Gulf route at scale.

Kazakhstan's president has posthumously awarded military personnel who died during naval exercises in the Caspian Sea, according to Qazinform. The state honour recognises the service members killed in the training incident. Details on the cause of the deaths or the exact date of the drills have not been disclosed, and officials have not yet published further information about the exercise.