ASPI

Iran is shifting its trade routes north to the Caspian Sea as the ongoing war impairs shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the main artery for its oil and goods exports. The Strait's disruption has forced Tehran to seek alternatives, including transit via northern ports and routes through Central Asian neighbours. The change signals how the conflict is reshaping Iran's commerce and regional logistics.

Analysts at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute argue that a Chinese seizure of Taiwan would be so destabilising for Japan that it could drive Tokyo to abandon its non-nuclear posture and develop nuclear weapons. The piece, published on ASPI's Strategist commentary site, frames the scenario as 'revolting for the CCP', suggesting Beijing's ambitions could trigger the very regional nuclear proliferation it seeks to avoid.

A new report in Vietnam highlights that an overwhelming 92% of people who say they want social housing have never actually submitted an application. The finding points to persistent barriers in the country's affordable housing programme, with observers citing complicated procedures, strict eligibility rules and limited suitable supply as likely reasons keeping would-be buyers from formally applying despite strong stated demand.